Beware the internet! The development of the internet has been a wonderful thing and it continues to change the way we communicate. Few of us can image a world without it. It has certainly been a world changing event as described in The World Is Flat by Thomas Friedman. However, as I browse the information super highway it is amazing how much misinformation and fabrication of data is taking place to bolster one’s view. That is why I am blogging so as to expose some of this misinformation.

I appreciate some of the comments left on my last blog on climate change. There were some relevant issues that need to be clarified. For example, Doug158 writes:

“Well Jim how do you explain the report that came out today that says that the annul Temp hasn't changed since 1998 and after all the hype that the ice cap was melting that it has refrozen and thicker then last year.”

There is a great deal of variability that occurs in the climate record. This is especially true when looking at temperature data year-to-year. In order to make sense and decipher trends the data has to be smoothed using statistical methods. The most often used trend line when looking at the instrumental record is a 5-year running mean. When this method is used it appears that the annual temperature has flattened for the past few years through 2007. However, since the current warming phase began in 1978, there have been two other flat periods around 1980 and 1990. This does not mean that the warming has stopped or that it has reversed.

Also, it is a misinterpretation of the data to suggest that the annual temperature hasn’t changed since 1998. Again an examination of the data shows that there was a spike in the temperature record in 1998. There have been considerable fluctuations in the record since that time. The 5-year running mean was about 0.12 C (0.216 F) lower in 1998 and didn’t flatten out until 2005. Furthermore, 1998 was marked by an exceptional El Nino which is known to produce a warming of 0.2 C for global temperatures. The second warmest year on record was 2005 not an El Nino year. The eight warmest years on record have occurred since 1997.

As for the ice cap refreezing and being thicker than last year, that is no surprise. January 2008 was considerably colder than January 2007, for the arctic region. However, the trend continues at a faster pace this decade of ice cap melting in the summer. Again it has been a warmer decade and projections of the summertime disappearance of the northern ice cap have been moved to an earlier time this century due to the rate of warming in the polar region.

Fedup writes: “Prominent MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel has publicly reversed his view regarding global warming's alleged impact on hurricanes.” I had the opportunity to hear Dr. Emmanuel lecture in January 2006 at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Dr. Christopher Landsea challenged his claim at that time. It was a beautiful example of how science works and how debate is healthy. The issue remains unresolved at this time. However, I am partial to Dr. Gray’s comment on global warming and hurricanes in his latest paper. The comment begins on page 25: The Tropical Meteorology Group's Forecast for 2008

Mudsharkslayer writes: “Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.

All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.”

If you looked at the report you will notice that the temperature record that they are referring to is the January temperature not the annual temperature. A look at the monthly data shows even larger variability than the annual record. The global temperature was much cooler this past January. However, as climate changes in either direction it increases the extremes. In fact, you tend to see fewer extremes in a stable climate.

This is also being touted by some skeptics as proof that warming is not taking place. They cite the cold weather and record snowfall over China and northern Europe as evidence. However, this ignores the fact that the March data was unusually warm leading to the smallest snow pack in aerial extent on record by this time of year. Again monthly data doesn’t give a clear picture due to the extremes of variability. That is why climate scientists focus more on the annual temperature.

Finally, JRS quotes a website “"There is no evidence that CO2 has ever ‘driven’ the climate in the past, nor is there any compelling evidence that it is doing so now."

"The ice-core data is frequently cited as principal evidence to argue that CO2 is the earth’s main climate driver. It is, in a way, the jewel in the crown of the theory of man made global warming. But the ice-core data does not show that CO2 drives climate. It shows, very clearly, that variations in temperature precede rises in atmospheric CO2 – not the other way round. The two phenomena are divided by a time lag of several hundred years…”

This is true. There is no evidence that CO2 has ever “driven” the climate in the past. However, it has been a feedback mechanism. The ice-core record now extends back about 800,000 years thanks to an on-going project in Antarctica called EPICA run by a European consortium. The record now covers 8 glacial-interglacial periods. Data clearly shows that at the end of an ice age the temperature for some reason begins to increase. Carbon dioxide levels begin to increase about 800 years later. So clearly an increase in CO2 did not end the ice age. However, once the increase in CO2 begins it greatly adds to the warming and the two correlate very well.

The difference this time is that the CO2 levels are increasing at an accelerating rate. The levels are not in keeping with the levels seen over the past 800,000 years. In fact, during all of the time prior to 1850 CO2 levels were within a range of 180-280 parts per million by volume (ppmv). The level in 1850 was about 280 ppmv that is considered the pre-industrial level. Carbon dioxide level have been increasing at an accelerating rate ever since. The greatest jump in a single year was in 1998 when the level jumped 3.0 ppmv to stand at a mean annual value of 366.50 ppmv. The 2007 value was 383.72 ppmv as measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.

A word on feedback mechanisms of which you may be familiar. Spring droughts often lead to summer heat waves. This is because dry ground heats faster than moist ground. Thus, the lack of rain leads to faster temperature rises. This in turn dries the soil even faster leading to hotter temperatures. It is difficult to break out of this pattern once you are in it.

Originally my blog was going to be entitled a response and a proposal, but the response has gone on long enough. My next blog will be about an interesting proposal put forth in a recent editorial in Investors Business Daily.