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This seems to have been the weather pattern for the past couple of months. Rainfall was either too much or too little. It was definitely too much in the Midwest where flooding continues in Iowa and down the Mississippi River into Missouri. Meanwhile, the drought has worsened for much of the Carolinas.

The drought is particularly bad for the upstate of South Carolina. The South Carolina Drought Response Committee upgraded five counties in the upstate bordering North Carolina to extreme drought. The remainder of the upstate and piedmont were upgraded or remained as a severe drought see Drought Status. In the midlands of South Carolina severe drought includes Saluda, Newberry, Fairfield, and Kershaw counties.

The National Weather Service and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issue the drought monitor on a weekly basis. Their classification scheme is slightly different as they classified the counties bordering North Carolina as an exceptional drought and much of the upstate as extreme see Drought Monitor.

Differences in the two measures are based on the data used to create the classification. South Carolina uses a more comprehensive data set including stream flow and forest fires. The USDA looks mainly at drought indices and rainfall, but it is undated weekly as opposed to the monthly or longer period for South Carolina.

Both of these reports provide useful information. The USDA responds faster to changes in drought conditions. The Drought Committee Report is a more comprehensive view of the drought and its impacts on the region.

Why are we seeing extremes of weather between the Midwest and Carolinas? It is primarily a response to the weather pattern that has changed little over the past two months. An examination of the climatology of both regions shows that it is not unusual to see dry conditions for late spring in the Carolinas and wet conditions in the Midwest. However, this year both have been at extremes. Some parts of the Midwest are seeing 500-year floods while the drought is the worst in 60 years for the upstate of South Carolina.

Climate change may be contributing to some of the extremes. Studies show that global warming has resulted in an increase in water vapor in the atmosphere by about 4%. This means that storms have access to more moisture resulting in heavier downpours. The number of extreme events is on the rise which often is a sign of climate change.

Droughts can be particularly nasty. It takes time to move into a drought and they do not always end in a hurry. However, there is some cause for optimism. We are moving into the wettest two months of the year. July and August see the greatest average rainfall of any two months on the calendar. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms may be a nuisance, but they provide a great deal of rain.

Hopefully the pattern will soon change to a typical summer pattern. This will bring some relief from the drought conditions. If is does not, we are in for one hot summer. Droughts and heat waves feed on each other.