There is always interest in what winter will be like.  Usually it is because people want to see snow here in the South.  However, this past year interest increased when the fall turned out to be colder than normal.  In fact, November was the coldest one since 1976 and was the fourth coldest on record.  Scott Ryan ran the numbers to see if there was a correlation between a cold fall and a cold winter.  No correlation could be found which meant winter did not depend on the weather pattern in the fall.

    People often cite The Old Farmers Almanac when asking me what I think.  In the latest edition the almanac was calling for a cold, wet winter for South Carolina.  The forecast was even more specific as they say that the winter will average 2 degrees below normal.  The Old Farmers Almanac forecast for the Southeast can be seen at this link.

    However, the view of the National Weather Service is different.  They look at a number of influences on weather patterns.  In their forecast they are calling for a warm, dry winter for the western part of South Carolina.  The remainder of the state has equal chances of being warm, normal, or cold.  The one thing that stands out in their forecast is that there will be a lot of variability this winter.  The National Weather Service's outlook can be seen at this link.

    The winter has proven to be warmer than normal so far in South Carolina.  The mean temperature was 4.4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for December, 2008.  Rainfall was normal for that month.  There has also been extreme variability in the weather with record lows and near record highs in Columbia, SC, during December.

    This means that January and February will have to be brutally cold to meet the forecast of The Old Farmers Almanac.  The winter outlook from the National Weather Service seems to be on track.  Thus, it appears that the winter will be near normal to above normal.  Based on the weather pattern in December it seems likely that the extreme moves in temperatures will continue.  This means cold blasts followed by mild periods.

    The only encouraging sign for snow comes from a correlation that Scott Ryan found in the Columbia records since 1887.  Snow occurs in Columbia in 68% of the winters when the first freeze occurs in October.  When it occurs in November snow is seen in only 44% of the winters.  The first freeze this season was on October 29.  So there is some hope for snow lovers this year.