This winter looks as though it will average warmer than normal and drier than normal.  December turned out to be 4.4F above normal with near normal precipitation.  January average just 0.1F below normal, but precipitation was 3.6 inches below normal.  February will not be cold enough to offset December and precipitation continues to be sparse.  Thus, it looks like the forecast from the National Weather Service will be right.  Contrast this with the Old Farmer's Almanac which was calling for a cold, wet winter.  Not this year.

    The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the spring months is drier than normal conditions.  Little could be determine about temperatures.  However, it is the dry outlook that causes the most concern.  Conditions are already deteriorating across the state and the Upstate remains in a severe to extreme drought.

    There is even more evidence for the dry forecast this spring.  An abrupt return to La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific occurred in January.  It is a weak to moderate La Nina, but current forecasts call for it to slowly dissipate to neutral conditions this spring.  However, the effect is already being felt and will likely be felt through the spring.

    Thus, it is likely that the Midlands will be in some stage of drought through the spring.  It may last into the rainy summer season which is normally the wettest time of the year.  How intense the drought will be can not be determined and some areas will be worse than others.

    So what do you do with this information?  Make sure that your flower beds and gardens have plenty of mulch to trap the moisture.  Begin to conserve water as much as possible and use good planning in your watering schedule.  Steps taken now can help a great deal during a dry spring.

    It takes time to move into and out of a drought.  But, the intensity of a drought can change quickly.  Precipitation for the first 46 days of 2009 was already in deficit by 5.4 inches.  This was having an effect on the fire season which will only get worse as the dryness continues.

    The growing season will be here soon and soil moisture is becoming inadequate.  Soil moisture may become critical as temperatures increase through the month of March.  However, we may not notice it much until April and May when the storm track shifts farther north.