Many still remember this fierce storm as it affected not only the coast, but also areas far inland. I have written in the past about my memories of the storm. For those who do not remember, Hugo came ashore near Sullivan's Island late at night on September 21, 1989 as a category 4 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 135 mph with higher gusts. However, the most damaging aspect of the hurricane was the storm surge, which topped 20 feet at Bull's Bay.

    This was just one in a history of violent hurricanes that have made landfall in South Carolina. Before Hugo there was Gracie in September 1959 and Hazel in October 1954. However, to match the devastation of Hugo you have to go back to the Hurricane of 1893. This hit the low country of South Carolina on August 28, 1893. Winds in the Beaufort area were estimated at 125 mph. The hurricane hit at high tide so that many of the barrier islands were submerged by the surge. Large sections of Beaufort County were under water. There are stories of people climbing large oak trees and tying themselves to the trees to keep from being blown away. When they looked out from their vantage point as they could see was water.  It is estimated that more than 2,000 people lost their lives in the worst natural disaster to strike the U.S. prior to the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

    There were other significant hurricanes in the 19^th century.  In 1854 a strong hurricane made landfall in Georgia between Brunswick and Savannah.  The effects from this hurricane were felt throughout the low country of South Carolina.  Other significant hurricanes occurred in 1822 and 1804.  The 1804 hurricane is thought to have been the strongest and most devastating hurricane to hit South Carolina until the 1893 hurricane.

    Will we see another Hugo? Yes.  The only question is when, not if.  Fortunately, a Hugo does not come along everyday.  In the past 210 years there have been potentially three hurricanes similar to Hugo.  Those were the hurricanes in 1804, 1893, and of course Hugo.  The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Charleston has created a website with a great deal of information on Hugo which be can accessed by clicking here.  For more on the history of South Carolina hurricanes click here.

    Are we better prepared for these types of storms?  Yes.  Much was learned from Hurricanes Hugo and Floyd (1999).  The evacuation plans are better and the state has a robust center for the South Carolina Emergency Management Division.  This agency tracks storms much as meteorologists do, but is in charge of preparing the state for impact and response.  I have much more confidence in their abilities than in many other states.

    However, you can only prepare so much.  No matter how much preparation or warning you have, it will not mean much if people ignore the recommendations.  Sadly, there is a sizable population along the coast that has never experienced a hurricane.  There are now as many people in the coastal counties of South Carolina as in the coastal counties of North Carolina and Georgia combined.  In addition, there are a significant number of people inland that have property near or along the coast.  Securing that property and evacuating people will continue to be a major problem.  It will go smoothly only if people listen and act appropriately.

    When I think back on Hurricane Hugo I am in awe of the progress that has been made in forecasting storms of this magnitude.  Back then the forecasts only went out to 72 hours.  Today those forecasts extend out to 120 hours.  The computer models we use are vastly superior to the models available then.

    There are still significant issues to overcome in forecasting hurricanes.  The major problem is forecasting intensity.  On September 21, 1989, Hugo began the day with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, but grew to 135 mph twelve hours later.  Each advisory during the day stated no significant strengthening was expected yet in increased from a category 2 to a category 4 hurricane.

    Forecasting the path of these storms has improved greatly through 72 hours, however there is still work to be done from 72-120 hours.  Forecasting hurricane formation near the coast is still a problem, thereby posing significant risks for those living along the coast.

    The combination of sinking landmasses and rising sea levels are gradually increasing the threat of the storm surge.  Charleston has problems with coastal flooding from just astronomical high tides.  Barrier islands are having the same problem and it will get worse.

    I am amaze how the coast has recovered from the storm.  However, there has been considerable new development, which puts people and property at higher risks.  A good example of this is Daufuskie Island that has an elevation of about 10 feet above sea level.  The island has long been inhabited, but much of the development has occurred since Hurricane Hugo.  There are ferries to the island, but no roads.  This is not a good situation when a hurricane is nearby.

    South Carolina will continue to prepare for the next Hugo (it will not be Hugo since that named has been retired).  New technologies are coming online to speed information to people unlike in 1989.  Today we have the internet, Twitter, text messages, etc.  People and information are more mobile.  The science is better and the history is clear.  Now it is up to the user to act when the time comes.