The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is off to a quiet start, and although we're just a month away from the most historically active part of hurricane season, the tropics are remaining quiet for now. Unfortunately, there is a chance that may change.
The latest August Outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests there's a 45% chance for an above average hurricane season (by the numbers). This is a slight increase from the near normal hurricane season they projected for 2019 back in May. An average hurricane season in the Atlantic has about 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes by the end of the season. Although this season appears quiet compared to the active seasons in 2017 and 2018, we are still on track with the average.
Dry air over the tropical Atlantic and limited thunderstorm activity emerging off the coast of Africa will keep the chance for tropical formation low through next week. The average peak of hurricane season is still a month a way, and NOAA is projecting that storm activity may pick up as we go into September and October.
Whether the 2019 Hurricane Season ends up with an above or below average number of storms, it's important to take this lull in the season to review hurricane safety plans. Seasons with an above average number of storms, keeps coastal communities on their toes, but even quiet seasons can have devastating storms. 2015 was a below normal hurricane season, but moisture drawn from Hurricane Joaquin devastated our community with flooding. During the quietest hurricane season of the decade, Hurricane Gonzalo hit Bermuda as a Category 4 with reports of winds well over 100 mph during the height of the storm.