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Three areas of interest in the Tropics

Tropical Storm Bill is moving away from the United States, but a disturbance in the Gulf could impact parts of the south this weekend.

COLUMBIA, S.C. — The tropics are becoming more active. Although Tropical Storm Bill is moving away from the United States, a disturbance in the Gulf has a high chance for development in the next 5 days and could have impacts over the weekend in parts of the South. Meanwhile, another disturbance off the coast of Africa has a low chance for development in the next 5 days. 

Tropical activity is rare in the month of June and when storms do develop they're usually weak. The most recent hurricane to make landfall in June was Bonnie in 1986 by the border of Texas and Louisiana. Only six hurricanes were born in the month of June in the past 40 years. Based on 1966-2009 averages, the Atlantic Basin doesn't see a Tropical Storm until early July. The first Tropical Storm of the 2021 Season was Ana in May. The first "B" name of the season is August 1st on average. Tropical Storm Bill formed well ahead of schedule on June 14th.

Tropical Storm Bill formed on Monday evening at 11 pm EDT off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. As of the Tuesday, 8 AM ET Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Bill has maximum winds of 50 mph and is quickly moving NE at 31 mph. Bill is expected to lose its tropical characteristics off the coast of Nova Scotia, Canada on Tuesday night. No additional strengthening is expected.

A disorganized area of thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico has a low, 20% chance of developing in the next 2 days, but a high chance of development, 70% in the next 5 days. The storm will likely remain disorganized until it begins to move north on Thursday. Regardless of if the system organizes, heavy rain is possible for the Gulf Coast for the weekend. Depending on the future track, rain is possible from the disturbance in South Carolina. The next name on the list is Claudette. 

Off the coast of Africa, a very early season tropical disturbance has a low chance of organizing. On Tuesday morning, the cluster of thunderstorms was looking more disorganized and is expected to encounter dry air and cool weather temperatures. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 10% chance of development in the next 5 days.

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