COLUMBIA, S.C. — The tropics have been very quiet since early July, but there are three areas being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. One area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic has a high chance of development over the next five days.
The Atlantic has only produced three named storms at this point of hurricane season but no hurricanes. Tropical Storm Alex on June 5 and became a post-tropical cyclone June 6. Tropical Storm Bonnie developed on July 1 and exited the Atlantic basin on July 2. Tropical Storm Colin was another short-lived storm that formed July 2 and was downgraded on July 3.
There are three areas currently being watched in the Atlantic for possible tropical development.
In the central tropical Atlantic, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has not changed much.
Additional, gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
The NHC gives this area a medium chance of further development over the next two days, but a high chance of development over the next five. Forecast models currently keep this system away from any landmasses.
In the eastern tropical Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized.
Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days.
The NHC gives this area a medium chance of further development over the next two days, and a medium chance of development over the next five.
In the central subtropical Atlantic, an area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system drifts generally eastward.
August has not had a named storm so far. If we make it through the month without a named storm, this would be the first time since 1997, and only the fifth time on record.
